The biggest stars at the 2026 U.S. Open may be Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Jon Rahm, but the most important character is Shinnecock Hills Golf Club on Long Island’s South Fork.
There are no shortcuts to be had at this links-style course. It demands precision, patience, and a strategic game plan. Every wayward shot will be punished, and those who can get themselves out of trouble with craft and touch will have a leg up over those who just try to push their way through.
The last time the U.S. Open championship was held at Shinnecock, it produced one of the most aesthetically pleasing leaderboards ever. Brooks Koepka won at 1-over par, Tommy Fleetwood finished second at 2-over, Dustin Johnson was third at 3-over, Patrick Reed was fourth at 4-over, and Tony Finau was fifth at — you guessed it — 5-over.
Don’t expect to see many red numbers out East.
Let’s get to the picks for the Major No. 3 of 2026:
Top of the board: Tommy Fleetwood (23/1, DraftKings)
It was almost a decade ago, but Fleetwood’s 63 to finish runner-up at Shinnecock in 2018 should give him confidence that this course is in his wheelhouse.
And it’s not just his previous performance here that makes him good value at 23/1. He’s also having a terrific season with three top-5s and six top-10s in 12 starts on the PGA Tour. Two of Fleetwood’s top-5 finishes have come in his last four outings.
So long as he isn’t distracted by the World Cup, Fleetwood (a massive Everton fan) should be in the running at Shinnecock.
Sleeper: Tyrrell Hatton (44/1, DraftKings)
Like his countryman, Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton has a skillset that should jive with Shinnecock.
He’s a grinder more than a puncher, and he seems to raise his level to meet the moment at majors.
Although he missed the cut at this year’s PGA Championship, that was one of just two MCs for the Wycombe native at a major since the 2022 Masters, a span of 18 tournaments.
Hatton finished T4 at the 2025 U.S. Open, T3 at this year’s Masters, and was T6 at Shinnecock in 2018.
A lot to like at this price.
Long shot: Harry Hall (200/1, Fanatics Sportsbook)
You may be noticing a theme here.
A third Englishman on the card, don’t let Harry Hall’s pedestrian results this season keep you away at this price. His game has the potential to translate really well to Shinnecock. And that should matter more in this kind of setup than a player’s current form.
Known for his craft around the green, Hall has popped up on the leaderboard at some really tough tournaments, including the Sony Open, Arnold Palmer Invitational, and the Truist Championship — all of which were “Signature Events.”
Like Fleetwood and Hatton, he’ll have plenty of experience with the do’s and don’t’s of links-style golf.
First-round leader: Jason Day (120/1, DraftKings)
Most of the time when you’re betting a first-round leader, you’re looking for someone to get white hot for 18 holes. At Shinnecock, it’s more about who can stay out of trouble for the day.
I like Jason Day’s chances of doing that.
The Aussie has had a lot of success on U.S. Open setups, twice finishing runner-up, and five times inside the top-10, and his short game is in good order this season.
Day is sixth on the PGA Tour this season in Strokes Gained: Around the Green.
Day has been around the block a few times. Don’t expect him to get overwhelmed by the moment on Thursday.
Prop: Patrick Reed top-10 finish (+430, FanDuel)
Always worth a look at the majors, especially on a course that emphasizes the short game, Patrick Reed is tempting across all markets this weekend.
Reed, a former winner at the Masters, finished 12th at Augusta this year and was T10 at the PGA Championship, so he’s having no issues transitioning from LIV tournaments to the elite fields he’s facing at the grand slams.
Reed finished fourth at Shinnecock in 2018.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.