England’s buccaneering win over Croatia in their first match of the World Cup feels like it happened ages ago.
The Three Lions have only played two games since then, and they’ve looked like a completely different team in a nil-nil draw against Ghana and a scrappy 2-0 win over Panama.
Against Croatia, England was bold and aggressive. When they took the lead, they looked to add to it. Under Gareth Southgate, the English were often criticized for not killing the game. That wasn’t the case in the win over Luka Modric and Vatreni.
Against Ghana and Panama, it was shades of the old, tired England.
The Three Lions looked out of sorts going forward, and were held scoreless for 90 minutes against The Black Stars and needed Jude Bellingham to score a cheeky goal on a corner kick in the 62nd minute to finally get one by Los Canaleros.
The English still topped the group and set themselves up with a favorable draw in the Round of 32 against DR Congo, but the old skeptics are back. The fanbase and the media back in Merrie England are now wondering if this team is all that different after all.
England vs. DR Congo odds, prediction
We know what DR Congo will want to do in this match because we’ve seen them do it against two terrific opponents already.
Les Leopards put on a defend-and-counter masterclass against Portugal in a 1-1 draw in their opening match, and they nearly eked out another point against Colombia. A bad bounce ended up in the back of their net and gave Los Cafeteros the 1-0 victory, but it was another encouraging performance from DR Congo.
They stamped their ticket to the Round of 32 with a 3-1 win over Uzbekistan, with all three goals coming in the second half.
The two matches against Portugal and Colombia should provide a blueprint for Les Leopards to carry with them to Atlanta on Wednesday.
While it’s tempting to think that Thomas Tuchel’s England should learn from their two matches against Ghana and Panama, DR Congo has much more to offer going forward than those two teams did.
Yoane Wissa has been talismanic for Sébastien Desabre’s side, and he’s got a terrific running mate up front in Cedric Bakambu.
England’s defense hasn’t conceded since the first half of the first match, but they were not a picture of dominance against Ghana or Panama. The Ghanaians were unlucky not to get awarded a penalty shot, while Panama had a couple of close calls go by the wayside.
Wissa, Bakambu, and the rest of the DR Congo have the potential to not only punish any English mistakes, but create chances on their own through their lightning-quick counterattacking.
If the England from the Croatia match shows up on Wednesday, DR Congo will be in for a long night. But we haven’t seen that team in the past two games, which makes the price on Les Leopards quite tempting.
It’s not a bet you should expect to win, but that doesn’t mean it’s not worth a hard look.
The Play: DR Congo to advance (+600, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.