Donald Trump Weighed Returning to ‘Full-Blown War’ With Iran: Why He Backed Down Ahead of Critical August 18 Deadline

Trump does not appear to be interested in taking any military action as a response to Iranian violations of the memorandum signed between both sides. He reportedly thinks that restarting the conflict will not allow the US to dismantle the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, and could also damage any possibility of reaching a diplomatic solution.

The deconfliction channel set up between Washington and Tehran, which included representatives from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the US Army’s Central Command, has already been used by both sides, an unnamed White House official told the Journal. The US has declared the IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation.

Hormuz conflict continues

Tuesday’s events brought into stark contrast the continuing issues between both sides. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had arrived in Doha for a meeting with Qatari mediators to further discussions with Iran, but both Qatar and Iran denied any high-level meeting between Washington and Tehran. This contradicts the claim made by Trump on Monday, which said that Iran had agreed to hold talks.

However, Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in an interview with Iranian state television on Tuesday that, “We are pursuing dialogue, but if the dialogue is not implemented, we are also prepared for war and will respond accordingly.”

Ghalibaf added that since the blockade has been lifted, oil exports have increased manifold, with more than 50 barrels of oil going out of Iran since then. “By contrast, during the previous 50 to nearly 60 days, we were genuinely unable to export even a single barrel of oil,” he said.

US Vice President JD Vance claimed that Iran will not be allowed to have any control over the Strait. In an interview released on Tuesday, he said, “This is not going to end in a place where the Iranians are collecting tolls on ships going through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Iran still emphasised their sovereignty, with Ghalibaf saying that, “The sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz lies with Iran and Oman, and traffic in the strait is subject to arrangements determined by Iran.”

These developments show that even though 60 days of negotiations have been decided on to work out a deal, both sides are far from agreeing on the initial framework, which asked Iran to surrender control of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for financial incentives.

Will a permanent solution be reached?

The 14-point pact finalised between the US and Iran on June 17 decided on 60-days to reach a permanent peace agreement in this conflict that started with the US and Israel strikes on Iran on February 28.

Iranian officials continue to stand firm on their right to manage all vessels passing through the waterway with US ally Oman, which lies on the other side, and have said that they will begin to levy tolls when the 60-day period expires.

The terms of the opening clause of the agreement state that the US, Iran and “their allies”, will permanently end the war, thus ruling out all resumption. This has resulted in resentment from Israel’s end, which has not had any part in negotiating the memorandum of understanding. While Israel’s President Benjamin Netanyahu has distanced himself from this deal, Israeli officials, while expressing their opposition to the terms, have said that this agreement does not resolve any of the war’s primary motives – which were to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program and demolish its regime.

(This story curated by Sneha Sharma, an intern at The Indian Express)