Brazil’s draw against Morocco was both disappointing and understandable.
By FIFA’s World Rankings, Morocco is the seventh-best team on the planet right now, and The Atlas Lions are just four years removed from making the semifinals at Qatar 2022. They are considered the best team in Africa, and were picked by plenty of punters to make a deep run this summer.
On the surface, getting held, 1-1, against Morocco is no cause for panic.
But for this iteration of Selecao, which came into the World Cup under scrutiny at home and abroad, it was a tepid first step into the competition.
A response is required against Haiti on Friday night in Philadelphia.
World Cup: Haiti vs. Brazil odds, picks
They may have lost 1-0 to Scotland, but Haiti were dignified in defeat in their World Cup opener.
Anytime Les Grenadiers got on the ball, they threw numbers forward and attacked with bravery, creativity, and purpose. It was not your typical World Cup underdog performance.
It was an admirable approach from a team that entered the tournament as one of the biggest long shots in the field, but it’s likely to get them in some serious trouble against Brazil.
That said, I don’t expect Haiti to change their DNA just because they’re coming up against one of the best teams in the world. This is who they are. And it’s not like Brazil coped with Morocco’s counterattack well in their opener.
Carlo Ancelotti was apologetic for his team’s performance against Morocco, so you know he’ll emphasize the importance of a response in their second match.
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Brazil’s attacking stars should love the stylistic conditions of this match. There should be space for Vinicius Junior and Raphinha to operate, and the scoring chances should come early and often for Canarinho.
But I also think there’s a good chance that Haiti contributes to this total. Brazil looked vulnerable on the counter against Morocco, and Les Grenadiers showed some serious pluck against Scotland, and their gusto could catch Brazil flat-footed.
Don’t be surprised if this one goes off the rails early and stays there.
The Play: Over 4.5 goals (+230, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.